The right Cinderellas in the NCAA women’s tournament bracket
Upsets are often the most fun part of March Madness. These three teams are candidates to pull them off in the NCAA women’s tournament this year.
The women’s NCAA tournament usually brings a little less chaos than the men’s bracket. Upsets happen, but the deepest runs almost always belong to the top teams. Over the past 20 years, no women’s champion has been seeded lower than No. 3, no team worse than a No. 5 seed has reached the title game, and nearly every Final Four team in the past decade has been seeded fourth or better.
That doesn’t mean there won’t be surprises. Here are three teams that could bring the madness to the women’s bracket this year. All data is from Her Hoop Stats, one of the most comprehensive resources for women’s hoops.
No. 10 Tennessee
Tennessee looks like a classic high-risk, high-reward Cinderella. The Lady Vols played the toughest schedule in the country but they limp into the tournament having lost seven straight and 10 of their last 12 games after a strong 14-3 start. That slide raises real concerns, yet it also helps explain the No. 10 seed. T
What makes Tennessee dangerous, despite the recent slide, is that the underlying profile still looks like a team built to stress opponents. The Lady Vols rank 26th nationally in scoring (77 points per game) and play at a top-30 pace, while launching threes at one of the highest rates in the country (12th in attempts, 26th in makes). That creates volatility, the kind that can swing a tournament game quickly. They also generate extra chances with strong offensive rebounding (top 60) and disruptive defense, forcing nearly 19 turnovers per game. In other words, even when the shot isn’t falling, Tennessee can manufacture possessions and points in ways most double-digit seeds cannot.
It’s not always clean, the shooting efficiency and free throws can dip, but the combination of pace, pressure and multiple scoring options gives Tennessee a ceiling that looks a lot more like a mid-seed than a typical No. 10.
No. 11 Fairfield
The Stags lead the nation with 11.4 made threes per game and rank top 10 in three-point percentage, but the key is efficiency. They are fourth nationally in effective field goal percentage and top 20 in offensive efficiency. Defensively, they allow just 56 points per game and hold opponents under 28 precent from behind the arc. That combination gives them a clear, repeatable formula to hang with higher seeds.
Kaety L’Amoreaux (17.6 points and 4.4 assists per game) and Meghan Andersen (16.0 points and 40 precent from three) lead a group where multiple players can space the floor and make quick decisions. Fairfield also ranks top 20 in assist-to-turnover ratio, so possessions are rarely wasted. That matters against Notre Dame, which struggles in several defensive shooting metrics and has shown vulnerability when opponents hit from deep, making Fairfield a legitimate threat to advance.
No. 11 South Dakota State
South Dakota State feels like the kind of mid-major nobody wants to see. The Jackrabbits are one of the most efficient offenses in the country, ranking top 10 in both field goal percentage and effective field goal percentage while scoring nearly 1.0 points per play. They are especially dominant inside, shooting 55 percent on two-point shots (third nationally), and they pair that with elite defensive rebounding (top five), which limits second chances.
The engine is Brooklyn Meyer, one of the most efficient high-volume scorers in the nation (22.4 points on 65 percent shooting), giving South Dakota State a reliable go-to option in close games. Around her, the Jackrabbits have spacing and balance, with multiple players shooting near or above 40 percent from three and a team-wide commitment to ball movement (top 50 in assists). Just as important, they rarely beat themselves, ranking among the best in the country at avoiding fouls and turnovers.