The math behind a generational NHL player

I analyzed every NHL career to estimate how often the sport should produce players like Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin.

A year ago, NHL Central Scouting called Gavin McKenna “the next great generational talent.” This week, with the Toronto Maple Leafs preparing to make him the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, that label has followed him from junior hockey to the NHL.

But what does “generational” actually mean? I wasn’t sure so I decided to measure it.

Using historical NHL data compiled by statistician Neil Paine (subscribe to his Stubstack), I modeled the league's most extreme performances to estimate how often they should occur. Rather than asking who was the greatest, I asked a different question: How many years should we expect to wait before seeing another season, another five-year run, another decade, or another career like it?

The answers reveal that hockey has produced several different kinds of generational players — and a handful whose peaks were so improbable they belong in an entirely different category.